In its fresh issue of World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund has upgraded outlook for Armenia’s economic growth in 2016 to 3.2% and in 2017 to 3.4%. In its previous report issued in April 2016, the IMF expected Armenia’s GDP would grow 1.9% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017. The IMF also forecasts 0.5% deflation in 2016 and 2.5% inflation in 2017.
Unemployment rate is expected to rise from 17.7% in 2015 to 17.9% in 2016 and 18% in 2017. The IMF analysts upgraded also economic outlooks for other CIS countries, including Georgia, Ukraine and Turkmenistan. They expect a 0.3% economic decline in the CIS countries instead of the 1.1% decline predicted in their previous report.
The IMF analysts expect a 1.3% economic growth in CIS countries against the 1.3 percent expected earlier. They replaced their previous 1.8% decline outlook for Russia’s economy in 2016 with 0.8% decline outlook, Azerbaijan’s 3% decline with 2.4% Belarus’ economy’s 2.7% decline outlook with 3% decline outlook and Kazahkstan’s 0.1% growth with 0.8% decline.
Developed countries had their 2016 and 2017 economic growth outlooks downgraded –to 1.6% from 1.8% (July report) due to the disappointment caused by scant business investments and slowdown in accumulation of commodity reserves in the first half of this year. In particular, the IMF downgraded the US economic growth outlook to 1.6% from 2.2%.
According to the IMF forecast, developing economies’ growth will speed up for the first time in the last six months to 4.2% instead of the 4.1% predicted in July. IMF analysts see grounds for presuming that the chronic stagnation in developed countries may fuel global trade opponents; sentiments, which may hobble economic growth. They, however, left the global economy growth outlooks for 2016 and 2017 unchanged — at 3.1% and 3.4% respectively.
Armenia’s Economic Growth Projected at 2.2%
In the Armenian government budget for 2016, economic growth is projected at 2.2%. In recent days, Vardan Adamyan, the country’s finance minister, said GDP growth was thought to be recorded at 2.4% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017.
The World Bank expects a1.9% economic growth in Armenia in 2016. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development says economic growth in Armenia will be recorded at 2% and the Eurasian Development Bank says may reach 2.6% this year. Fitch’s outlook stands at 2% and Moody’s expects a GDP growth slowdown to 2.2%. The Central Bank of Armenia expects 2.7% to 3.6% economic growth.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, 1.55 economic growth was recorded in the country in the second quarter of this year against the 4.5% recorded in the first quarter.